Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
